Al-Qaeda’s Next Phase
22-08-2007
Original date of publication December 5th, 2006
By Yaman
Mokhaddab
In the Name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful
May peace and prayers be upon the most honest among messengers and prophets.
There is no doubt that Al-Qaeda (the base of Jihad) has its own long term
strategy that has been declared and clarified many times by several leaders of
Al-Qaeda headed by Sheikh Osama Bin Laden (may Allah be satisfied of him and
satisfy him and protect him with his sleepless eyes).
No doubt that this strategy has been divided into several phases, so that, each
phase leads to the next one and delivers it the flag. All these phases are
heading on one way direction targeting the establishment of the mighty Islamic
State, be it achieved through the glory of a glorious or the humiliation of a
humiliated.
That was Al-Qaeda’s thinking, planning, views and it declared that very clearly
– and I’m not concerned here about mentioning or listing these phases as the
matter has been thoroughly discussed and read many times by the “experts in Al-Qaeda”.
All the above mentioned is well known to everybody, but the gray area is the
fine separators between each phase and the next, since neither Al-Qaeda has
clearly clarified this issue the same way it had done with the phases, nor the
researchers and the Al-Qaeda experts have been able to set very clear separators
between each phase and the another.
Both Al-Qaeda and experts have been unable to determine such separators for one
simple reason: that is the determining of such separators is strongly related to
the progress of the events and situations, and the reactions of the enemy, which
it was generally predictable but still impossible to set a definite timetable
to.
Here, I want to speak about the current phase of the blessed strategy of Al-Qaeda,
in which we live right now, which is dragging the enemy into a direct engagement
inside the Islamic regions to exhaust and bleed him economically, spiritually,
and socially, and in the meanwhile to gather and recruit Muslims against that
aggressing enemy even if that requires utilizing the instinct of survival and
self defense.
Everybody knows that this phase has already successfully started by the American
invasion of Afghanistan after the blessed 9/11 attacks, then it dramatically
developed through the American drop in the Iraqi quagmire more than 42 months
ago.
All of us recognize the size of achievements throughout this blessed phase, such
as the bloody exhaustion of the troops of the biggest idol (America), and the
momentum and great additions to the spirit of the Ummah (Islamic nation) which
woke up on the footsteps of the invading soldiers then rushed to defend their
lands, and to the believing souls which returned back to their god supplicating
and requesting his help and having learnt that Allah bestows upon people who
better rely on him, and that the relying on Allah starts and ends with Jihad,
and that Allah supports with victory only those who have supported him (by
obeying him and supporting his religion). Ndf56
To Muslims, these values are deeply rooted beliefs but they were only mentally
memorized principles without real meanings until this blessed phase came and
made people really taste these ideological values and made them feel them,
occupying their minds, hearts, and bodies.
I would like here to discuss this blessed phase and raise one question only;
that is:
Is Al-Qaeda about to declare
the end of this phase now? and that the nest phase is going to start in the name
of Allaah?
I am only
going to discuss and express my own views, but of course, the certain reply will
be with both Sheihks Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Thawahiry or one of them. And
in my own anticipation, the declaration of the end of such a phase or its
continuation for more time will be in no more than 15 days maximum from the date
of me writing this letter on the 2nd of Shawal 1427 – the second day of blessed
Eid Al Fitr.
Now I am going to summarize my views in points, and I guess many of you will
share my views:
1-The stage of Dragging the enemy into a direct and coherent conflict without
any mediators, which started, as I stated before, at the invasion of Afghanistan
and 5 years have passed since then now.
2- During this stage the Americans suffered from what they have never seen
before in their entire history. Economic, moral and social losses are about to
bring them down to their knees.
3-The infidelity alliance headed by the Americans is about to break out after
all its parties started to feel how terrible the suffering and the terror that
afflicted all the parties of this evil alliance. What about several countries in
the coalition fleeing from Iraq? As well as the failure encountered by the NATO
in Afghanistan and the inability of all its countries to provide even an
additional 1 thousand troops. Casting blame between its parties, selflessness
and self-stigmatization the other parties by selfishness are nothing but strong
evidence of an imminent collapse of the alliance in a crude and frank way.
4-The Americans tried more than once during that stage to change their policy,
and tried to retreat from this direct engagement several times, sometimes with
the insidious attempts to implicate others parties, and on other times by
claiming quietness in the areas they occupy, whether in Afghanistan or Iraq.
Sometimes they stated it clearly like what happened several times during the
last five years when voices raised the calling for withdrawal and retreat from
Afghanistan and Iraq or both of them, voices of influential people who can
actually influence the decision making circles in America.
5-All the Americans attempts to retreat failed, and Al-Qaeda did not allow them
to succeed because -by that time- the stage had not fructified yet and the enemy
had not reached the stage of full collapse and disability yet. We all noticed
and I wrote, just like others, about this issue, that whenever the enemy thought
about withdrawal and retreat, either Sheikh Osama or Sheikh Ayman would appear
to remind them of their mortal complex of fleeing from battles and the victory
that would be achieved by the Mujahideen after they flee, and threatening them
with woes and terrorist attacks in their homelands, so, with the avenger
American cowboy mentality, Americans would gather around their obeyed fool Bush,
and wise voices talking about retreat would be lowered in order not to be
accused of treason and they just bite their tongues. And the obeyed fool Bush
bullies and goes farther and farther in the direct engagement, and the
Mujahideen would laugh in their hearts, and like that it goes: whenever wise
voices of some Americans goes louder, Al-Qaeda leaders confront it, so the
voices of foolishness and madness go louder again and the people continue their
inevitable path wanted by the Lord of worlds for them than from Al-Qaeda and its
genius leaders. And I wrote an article in the past clarifying this issue
entitled “the genius doctors”.
6- An example of addressing the reasonable voices of America by Al-Qaeda
leaders, and encouraging the voices of irrationality and insanity: once again I
will mention the speech of Sheikh Osama right before the American presidential
elections, when the balance was in John Kerry’s favor who could have amended
many of Bush’s foolish strategies in case he won the election and without any
embarrassment as the new president who comes from another party with different
political direction (which was impossible for Bush to do, Bush who gambled
himself, his party, his future and the future of his Neocons on his War on
terror (war on Islam) and thus not having any hope in retreating, but to move
forward till the end of the road) and so Sheikh Osama came out, taking advantage
of the stupid American mentality which Al-Qaeda had studied pretty well, and
giving the American people the choice, to choose peace which means defeat, or to
choose war in which he will make them suffer from so…and so… through it.
Consequently, the picture went totally upside down and the Americans gathered
around their obeyed fool and he won in the presidential elections, so he had to
stay and to continue till the end of the road, which was exactly what Al-Qaeda
wanted (despite that some of those who did not understand Al-Qaeda’s strategies
were upset by the speech of Sheikh Osama and they felt sad because he helped
Bush winning while they wanted his failure).
Also, We should not forget a year ago, when voices came out clearly asking for
retreat from Iraq, so Sheikh Ayman appeared gibing Bush with his flee, saying
that he should admit his defeat, also saying and in a clear way that the
Americans are leaving Iraq on a silver plate for the Mujahideen. Bush used this
speech heavily in the media to eliminate the voices of his opponents and he kept
on repeating and addressing his people and telling them “did you see that
retreat from Iraq is a defeat for us and a victory for the terrorists? Do you
want to give Al-Qaeda that easy victory?”… So the voices of those who oppose
Bush had to shut up in order not to be accused of treason, and the obeyed fool
got his way.
Also when America entrusted its duties in Afghanistan to the NATO and the NATO
began to complain, Sheikh Ayman appeared once again telling bush that Taliban
and Al-Qaeda (literally Al-Qaeda) are controlling Afghanistan and as usual you
are fleeing away Bush, just like you and your people always did, so they
recalculated their positions and started begging for troops, and they announced
that they will add from 800 to 1000 additional fighter all they could manage to
get.
7- The previous examples – as well as others that I could not mention-
illustrate the insistence of Al-Qaeda in all times to keep the state of direct
engagement with the Americans, as the stage had not bear its fruit yet, and
always the Americans stupidly swallowed the bait and they further drowned in the
direct engagement and in the genius stage of the blessed strategy of Al-Qaeda.
8- Now… it is quite clear that the Americans are totally desperate of this state
of direct engagement and they nearly lost all their ability to withstand further
losses and woes. One who follows the American newspapers and the speeches of
American officials sees clearly the defeatist mood dominating them and the slump
of their ability to withstand anymore, he would notice that the confessions and
calls to flee are frequent and from all parties, whether from Bush’s rivals from
inside the democratic party and who oppose his policy or even his supporters.
Even the pillars of his government themselves like Fernandez who was about to
cry when he was talking to Al-Jazeera saying that they are ready to Negotiate
with any part, begging people in the Middle East –according to him- not to make
fun of America, and accusing his government’s policy in Iraq of arrogance and
stupidity!
Even the Zionist Thomas Friedman wrote saying that Bush already does not have
any supporter to save Barney (his dog). It even went further to Bush himself,
who admitted on air that the situation in Iraq became similar to the situation
in Vietnam, which is the mortal complex that is still entrenched in the
mentality of America.
So The Americans started frantic efforts to do anything to escape from Iraq.
Starting with public and secret negotiations with all the parties that have
accepted to negotiate, passing through the attempt to form alliances, and
holding some Iraqi reconciliation conferences such as the Mecca conference, to
forming committees, especially non-governmental ones trying to find a way out
such as the James Baker committee and even casting huge pressure on the puppet
government in Iraq to become ready to be handed over more towns to take care of
… and…Etc…Etc…
9- Fifteen days to go till the full elections of the American Congress and one
third of the senates. And all the indicators state that the Bush opponents, the
democrats, are going to win. All the analysts are saying that Iraq is the most
issue on the agenda of these elections. The Democrats are pressing hard in the
direction of withdrawing the troops from Iraq to flirt with the American public,
of which about 70% are supporting the withdrawal of those troops as a matter of
urgency. The American public says that it will vote for the democrats to
continue their pressure in the direction of withdrawing the troops.
If the Democrats win this election - as expected – then they will become obliged
to fulfill electoral promises, especially the withdrawal of troops from Iraq,
therefore, the remaining two years of Bush’s term in the White House would be a
living hell for him. So, pressure will increase on him and perhaps scandals will
be framed for him, as it is the American custom to weaken any American president
in his second period (as there would not be any electoral pressures as he cannot
enter the elections again), so he must be put under some scandals in order to
keep him dominated by the Lobby, the actual governor in America. This Lobby now
wants to retreat from Iraq as it cannot stand any more losses. Also they did not
gain even 1% of the profits of what they have expected to from invading Iraq.
For all that mentioned, the winning of the Democrats simply means a complete
urgent retreat from Iraq, and a huge drop in the American role in Afghanistan,
whereas the Republican Party, Bush’s party, needs a miracle to win.
10-From all of these signs, one can easily arrive at the idea that the Americans
have already taken their final decision to withdraw from Iraq, and that applying
this decision is only a matter of time which won’t be long, and I don’t think
they would take more than a few months, as their ability to withstand had ended.
Even if a miracle to happen and Bush wins the elections with his party, they
also already have their plans for withdrawal from Iraq, perhaps in a calmer way
than if the democrats win.
Now the important question is:
11- Will Al-Qaeda allow this American withdrawal and ending of the direct
engagement stage??
In my point of view the answer to this question is:
If Al-Qaeda see that the direct engagement stage has been fruitful and achieved
its goals then it will allow this shameful withdrawal of the Americans and then
it will use it in the proper way to impose its control over some parts of the
Islamic world, and maybe the Islamic State in Iraq will be the nucleus that
starts skirmishes to expand its control, which is a new and a different stage
other than the direct engagement stage that we are experiencing now.
From my personal point of view, which might be incorrect as I do not know what
Al-Qaeda leaders know, the time for this stage did not arrive yet, and it is
better to continue on in the direct engagement stage for a longer period of time
and even expanding it until the Americans erode completely and lose any ability
to return or even interfere again in the region. And I think that although their
power was greatly weakened but it is still there, and a few years will be enough
for them to regain their power and repeat what they did in the region again.
But if Al-Qaeda saw that there are some goals that have not yet been achieved in
this stage of the war, and that it is better to continue on with this stage for
a while, then they will try to do their best to stop the American withdrawal and
the separation of forces that the Americans are dying for now.
12-And what if Al-Qaeda wanted to stop this withdrawal and maintain the direct
engagement stage?
In my opinion and in order for Al-Qaeda to do that, and from my understanding of
its strategy and its way of planning and accomplishing that will require them to
do 2 things:
First: to ensure that Bush and his party win in the coming election which is
planned to be held in less than 2 weeks, and that would guarantee that no rapid
withdrawal will take place as it would happen in case the Democrats win.
Secondly: to take advantage of the period following the victory of Bush in the
election – who I think, is also planning for the withdrawal but in slower
ratesــ to give its second great strike to America and before this withdrawal.
If this strike takes place, it would be enough to recruit all the remaining
power to infiltrate with a more and more direct engagements in a wider area than
Iraq and Afghanistan (might be Al Sham).Doing this, Al-Qaeda can certainly (as I
believe) keep America in the stage of direct engagement to reap all the possible
fruits of this stage, if it thinks it didn’t achieve all of it yet. I do not
think that it is possible for Bush’s party to win and then America gets attacked
once again and at the same time the stage of direct engagement ends. I believe
it would expand more and more.
13- Is Al-Qaeda able to grant Bush and his party an electoral victory in the
forthcoming election in order to maintain the state of direct war?
My Answer is YES. All that is required is to give Bush and his party the miracle
without which they are certainly going to lose the elections, and in my opinion
this miracle is very simple and easy for Al-Qaeda leaders.
All it needs is a televised tape in which Sheikh Ayman or maybe Sheikh Osama
appears and goes too far in gibing the Americans’ flee, and declares that Al-Qaeda
has already established a strong base in Iraq and Afghanistan for example, with
some threats to America and reminding it of its foolish failure in arresting the
Mujahedin, also maybe some threatening to the local infidelity forces in the
region like Jordan or the oil fields in the Gulf and Israel of course.
If one of Al-Qaeda leaders is to do like what I said, then I can guarantee
Bush’s victory in the election and the continuing of the direct engagement
stage, due to reasons related to the nature of the American society and their
mentality that no one understands better than Al-Qaeda leaders did.
Also Al-Qaeda can replace this tape or accompany it with a strike against one of
the important oil centers in the region if it has the ability to do this at
present, but with the condition to do it before the election, i.e. within 15
days not more, or replace it by a strike against one of the United States allies
like the U.K. That tape or those strikes, or both of them will give the
Republicans the guarantee to win the coming elections after emphasizing on it in
their media, the process in which they are really good at.
In addition, in case Al-Qaeda had already finished its preparations for the
forthcoming huge strike in America and can do it within the next 2 weeks (which
I personally doubt), then it could shorten those 2 steps that are required to
maintain the state of direct engagement into one simple step: Bush’s party wins
and the conflict increases and even expands.
14- Please note that to end the direct engagement state is up to Al-Qaeda, after
Allah’s will of course, and it is not a question if it is able to or not.
So, even if Al-Qaeda right now does not have the ability to implement any
operation, a televised speech by one of its leaders would be enough, and if they
wanted it to be a crucial win then it would be by Sheikh Osama, in order to give
Bush electoral win and maintain the state of direct engagement in the mean time,
until it becomes able to execute an operation that can expand the conflict state
and add fuel to Bush’s fire in order to extract all the power and determination
left in America’s quiver.
15- Based on all of the previous I can say with confidence, based on my
understanding of the strategic and operational plans of Al-Qaeda, that we have
less than 15 days within which Al-Qaeda will clearly announce one of two things:
The first one is to keep silent, which means its approval on ending the stage of
direct engagement, and this will be a declaration of the beginning of the new
stage.
The second option is the appearance of either Sheikh Osama or Sheikh Ayman to
announce the continuation of the stage of direct engagement, because Al-Qaeda
have not had enough blood, dollars and spirits from the Americans yet, and that
there is still more that the Americans have to pay in this important stage. This
tape might or might not be accompanied by an operation, as the decision to
strike depends on the ability rather than the will which is the only concern in
the case of the televised tape.
Finally, I believe that we are facing two weeks, two of the most dangerous weeks
in the agenda of the blessed Qaeda. It is either to continue in the present
stage or to begin a new one with all the changes that it will bring.
It’s all for Allah before and after, and what Allah wants will certainly be.
Again, what determines all that fore mentioned, is the appearance or abstaining
from appearance of one of Al-Qaeda leaders.
I hope that my discussion of this coming event has been satisfactory, and if I
was wrong then it is because of my self, and if I was right then it is grant
Allah has bestowed on me.
Serving Allah’s cause is my intention and He guides to the righteous way…
Your brother,
Yaman Mokhaddab